P&L Projection Calculator

Capital progression modeling for SPX 0DTE structures

The 70% threshold is a discipline floor, not a profitability threshold. Chapter 22 asks the framework to clear 70% across paper-mode sessions before live capital, but at 70% with conservative loss and exit assumptions the framework is roughly break-even at small scale. Meaningful net P&L emerges from higher sustained win rates and capital-progression scale. The calculator is a planning instrument.

Inputs

Tier sets default position size and sessions per month per Chapter 23 capital-progression spine.
Tier default: 1–2 contracts.
Paper-mode-validated rate. Chapter 22 threshold is 70% sustained across meaningful sessions.
Trading days the framework runs. Tier and macro calendar both reduce eligible sessions.
Per spread, single contract. Iron condor models both sides combined.
Determines fee load: 8 contract-legs round trip for iron condor, 4 for vertical.
Exit-band distribution (% of winning trades)
Sum: 100%
Realized loss as multiple of credit collected, under hardened level-based exit. Chapter 4 framing: 1.0–1.5× typical; 2× conservative for risk budgeting.

Projection — selected tier

Monthly net P&L
$0
at current parameters
Monthly gross P&L $0
Monthly fees $0
Average win exit (% of credit) 0%
Per-trade EV (net) $0
Sessions to recover one managed loss —
Win-rate sensitivity
Win rate Per-trade EV Monthly net

Capital progression across tiers

Each row applies your current win rate, credit, exit-band distribution, and managed loss multiple at the tier’s default position size and sessions-per-month assumption.

Tier Size Sessions/mo Monthly net Months to next tier
Status: —

Assumptions and limitations

Win profit per trade is computed as credit × weighted-average exit-band fraction, summed across the four time-adjusted profit-target bands per Chapter 18. Losses are computed as credit × managed loss multiple, reflecting realized exits under the hardened level-based exit rule, well short of wing-width-minus-credit max loss.

Fees default to $0.65 per contract per leg — an industry-typical SPX retail rate. Iron condors carry eight contract-legs per round trip (entry plus exit, four legs each). Vertical spreads carry four. Real fees vary by broker and may include exchange and regulatory components above the per-contract rate.

Tier-progression timeline assumes the trader holds at the tier’s capital midpoint and grows through the tier under sustained net P&L. The framework does not authorize tier escalation on capital growth alone — tier transitions are gated on win rate at or above 70% AND capital threshold cleared, per Chapter 22 paper-mode discipline and Chapter 23 transition canon. The status row reflects this gate.

Sub-$25K is below the framework’s $25,000 live-capital floor. Its reduced sessions-per-month default reflects framework prudence at small size, not a recommendation. The Pattern Day Trader day-trade cap that historically constrained sub-$25K accounts is being retired under the June 2026 amendment to FINRA Rule 4210, phased in broker by broker through October 2027; the framework keeps the $25,000 floor as a capital-discipline gate regardless. See Chapter 23.

The calculator is a planning instrument, not a forecast. Real results depend on the framework holding under live capital, and the framework holds because the trader does. Capital is what the framework runs on. Discipline is what the framework runs.